Tornado Tracking

Forecast basics Identifying and understanding ingredients | Search for boundaries and gradients | Looking for what could go wrong :: Spotting basics Tornado shapes and sizes | Tornadic radar signatures

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Tornado risk overview – Storm Prediction Center

The key things to know from the experts, select images for more info at source

Today’s tornado probabilities

The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. If a hatched area is included in the image, which is only done with probabilities of 10 percent or higher, strong tornadoes are more of a concern than normal. The following tornado probabilities correspond to each SPC storm risk category.

See also: Maximum tornado probabilities by month and year

2%, Marginal | 5%, Slight | 10%, Enhanced (hatch = EF2+ greater risk) | 15%, Moderate (as above) | 30%, Moderate (if no hatch) | 30%+, High (hatch = EF2+ greater risk)

Current outlook areas, radar, and convective watches

Organized categorical risk of severe storms begins with “marginal” (MRGL). Levels increase from there to “slight” (SLGT), then “enhanced” (ENH), to “moderate” (MDT), and finally “high” (HIGH). In a marginal risk, one might expect mostly non severe storms, with perhaps an isolated severe weather incident. Severity is up from there, from short-lived in slight to more persistent in enhanced, long-lived in moderate, and exceptional in high. SPC has a graphic covering differences.

Watches, either tornado (red) or severe thunderstorm (blue), indicate that storms are likely to pose the highlighted threat. Tornadoes also occur in severe thunderstorm watches fairly frequently.

The days ahead

Tomorrow’s tornado probability (outlook)

Day three severe weather outlook | Days 4-8 severe weather outlook

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Satellite

Viewing storms from space

College of DuPage | NASA Regional Viewer (Visible, Infrared, Water Vapor) 

Current surface conditions

A look at the key environmental factors

U.S. surface features

A surface feature analysis often tells the basic story of any weather setup. High pressure? Probably sunny. Low pressure? Probably stormy. When it comes to tornadoes, your classic setups involve a low pressure system (little red L above) to the northwest or west of the area of primary severe risk. Other features that help produce tornadoes include wind shift zones like the warm front (red lines with half-circle bubbles pointing in the direction of movement), surface trough/dry line (dashed orange line, often connected to a low), and in some cases the cold front (blue line with arrows pointing in the direction of movement).

SPC mesoanalysis pressure plot

U.S. observations, including wind speed and direction

Weather observations are critical to any severe storm forecast. The chart above is a simple one, and similar to the general surface feature map just above. When it comes to tornado forecasting, the quick items to look for in actual station observations that aren’t explicitly in the features map include: surface winds and temperatures, as well as dew points (more detail on that below). A critical component in tornadogenesis is “backing” low-level winds. In many warm-season cases, that means a southeasterly wind or close. In general, winds with a lengthy southerly component will efficiently transport moisture northward. Where winds shift, fronts or boundaries can be found.

U.S. temperatures

U.S. dewpoints

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Key tornado indices via the Storm Prediction Center

These indicators are among the best

Surface based CAPE

CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, is among the necessary ingredients for storms. If CAPE is zero, the atmosphere is stable. Measured in Joules per kilogram (j/kg), values near or over 500-1,000 j/kg are often about the low-end needed for widespread severe weather chances. Values over 3,000-4,000 are considered extremely unstable, often indicative of a high-end severe weather event. There are several layers of the atmosphere in which CAPE is measured, with surface CAPE among the most used to determine thunderstorm potential and gauge a severity ceiling.

A look at Cape | Examining CAPE

Bulk shear

Bulk shear, or deep layer shear, is defined as the change in wind speed or direction within the lowest 6 km or 3.5 miles of the atmosphere. Bulk shear values of 40 knots or greater are supportive of supercells. Values lower, say between 30 and 40 knots, may also support supercells or supercell structures depending on the terrain and other ingredients. Larger bulk shear values tend to correlate to higher tornado potential, to a point at least.

Severe weather forecasting tip sheet (NWS, PDF)

Cheat code

When it comes to 0-3 km CAPE and surface vorticity you look for the overlaps, go to them, and profit. Many people are saying Colin Davis was the first to call this a cheat code.

Supercell composite

Supercell composite is an index that includes several severe weather ingredients. The ingredients are effective storm-relative helicity, most unstable CAPE (muCAPE), and effective bulk wind difference. Values of 1 or greater indicate an increased potential for right-moving supercells, should storms fire or move into the region highlighted by the supercell composite index. More details can be found here.

Significant tornado

The significant tornado parameter (effective layer) is another composite index. Like the supercell composite, it contains several ingredients. The soup that makes up the significant tornado parameter includes effective bulk wind difference, effective storm-relative helicity, 100mb mean parcel CAPE (mlCAPE), and 100mb mean parcel height (mILCL). Values greater than 1 have been associated with a majority of tornadoes that have been rated significant/strong (which is a rating of F/EF2 or greater). Non-tornadic supercells, on the other hand, are often associated with significant tornado parameters of less than 1.

Surface-1km EHI

LCL Height

The Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) is the pressure level at which air reaches saturation upon being lifted. In more basic terms, it is often roughly where the base of a cloud should form as thunderstorm convection occurs during the warm season. Research has found that supercell tornadoes generally require LCLs below 1,500 meters. Strong tornadoes are more common with LCLs below 1,000 meters, and probably more in the 600 to 800 meter zone or lower. LCLs are often lower in a storm environment than shown in a large-scale analyses like above.

Hodographs! SPC recently added hodograph maps to their mesoanalysis. If you’ve seen our case archive, you know we love hodographs. Hodographs give a quick-look at the wind profile from the surface to the tropopause. Learning all the shapes can help your forecast immensely. Sadly, it is not available in CONUS so here are some direct links: South-Central | Central | North Central | Gulf Coast/South | Southeast/Mid Atlantic | Northeast/Great Lakes

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Tornado and severe weather links

Key sources for forecasting tornadoes and severe weather

General tornado forecast tools

PivotalWeather.com Models | TwisterData.com Data and Models | COD Meteorology Model Page | SPC Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Page | SPC HREF Ensemble Viewer | Colorado State University Machine-Learning Probabilities

Short-term tools

SPC Mesoanalysis Pages | Radar derived hodographs | SPC Observed Soundings | CONUS Radar Loop (large)

Medium-to-long term tools

CIPS historical analog guidance (extended analogs) | Experimental Tornado Probability Based on GEFS Reforecasts | CFS Severe Weather Guidance Dashboard

Tornado watching tools

Tornado Intensity Reference Guide

Lightning tracking

Vaisala lightning network | LightningMaps.org – Real Time Lightning

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NWS office links

Area Forecast Discussions

Southeast

(FL) Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, Miami, Key West (GA) Atlanta/Peachtree City (SC) Columbia, Charleston, Greenville/Spartanburg (NC) Wilmington, Morehead City, Raleigh

Mid-South

(AR) Little Rock (LA) Shreveport, Lake Charles, New Orleans (TN) Memphis, Nashville, Morristown (MS) Jackson (AL) Huntsville, Birmingham, Mobile

South/central Plains

(TX) Amarillo, Austin, Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland, San Angelo (NM) Albuquerque (OK) Norman, Tulsa (KS) Dodge City, Goodland, Topeka, Wichita (CO) Denver, Pueblo

North/central Plains

(NE) Hastings, North Platte, Omaha (WY) Cheyenne (SD) Aberdeen, Rapid City, Sioux Falls (ND) Bismarck, Grand Forks (MT) Billings, Glasgow

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Recent Tornado Warnings

Places at risk now or in the recent past

Tweets by NWStornado

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