Tornado Threat Forecast

Tornado Threat Forecast: April 16-22, 2019

A potent storm system will work across the South and into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday through Friday, likely producing tornadoes each day. Afterwards, a quieter period is in store as new disturbances come in looking weaker and less punchy.

1-3 Day

Tuesday

No tornadoes expected.

Wednesday – Southern Plains, central and southern Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 7-18 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good dynamics, low to moderate instability, good speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Questionable storm mode, potential backing winds in the mid-levels, storms may not be more elevated in the northern parts of the risk area.

Thursday – Southern Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southeast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-14 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Southern Mississippi Valley

Pros: Good dynamics, good/excellent speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Mostly low instability, poor/decent mid-to-upper level directional shear, questionable storm mode.

4-7 Day

Friday – Mid-Atlantic, Southeast

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-7 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good dynamics, good/excellent speed shear, good dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, poor/decent directional shear, questionable storm mode.

Saturday

No tornadoes expected.

Sunday – Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good directional shear, good low-level speed shear.
Cons: Poor mid-to-upper speed shear, weak dynamics.

Monday – Central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Decent speed shear.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, low instability, weak dynamics.

The following two tabs change content below.
Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Latest posts by Mark Ellinwood (see all)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.