Hello? May? This can’t be May. I mean, our seasonal outlook called for a quieter than normal May, but THIS?!
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good low-level directional shear near the warm front, decent/good speed shear.
Cons: Poor low-level directional shear south of the warm front, unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, little to no upper-level support.
Monday – New Mexico, far western Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good low-to-mid level directional shear.
Cons: Weak mid-level shear, little to no upper-level support.
Tuesday – Northern High Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, Good/excellent mid-to-upper level directional shear, decent/good low-level speed shear.
Cons: Weak mid-level shear, fairly unidirectional low-level shear, initially high LCLs, rising/neutral heights.
Wednesday – Northern Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good low-level directional shear, decent/good low-level speed shear.
Cons: Weak mid-level shear, unidirectional/backing mid-to-upper level winds, weak upper-level dynamics.
Thursday – Northern Plains, northwestern Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good low-level shear, decent upper-level support.
Cons: Weak mid-to-upper level winds, some backing of the upper-level winds.
Friday
No tornadoes expected.
Saturday
No tornadoes expected.
Sunday – Northern High Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, decent/good shear overall, maybe some upper-level support.
Cons: Southerly to southeasterly mid-to-upper level winds, questionable storm mode, potential some weakness in the mid-level speed shear.
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