Mother Nature went back to sleep and has hit the snooze button on the second week of May. Opportunities for a couple of tornadoes here and there, but each day’s setup looks like it will be hard to come by many tornadoes. However, we are heading into mid-May, where more subtle setups at range can yield higher-than-expected tornado counts if the mesoscale ingredients line up just right.
No tornadoes expected.
Tuesday – East-central Plains, southwestern Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good low-to-mid level speed shear.
Cons: Weaker upper-level winds, some backing winds in the upper levels, potential low-level moisture concerns.
Wednesday – Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-7 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear.
Cons: Questionable low-level moisture, mostly unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds.
Thursday – Southern South Dakota, northern Nebraska
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, good/excellent directional shear, decent/good low-level speed shear.
Cons: Questionable low-level moisture, high LCLs, weak/decent mid-to-upper level speed shear.
Friday – Southern Nebraska, far northern Kansas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional shear, good speed shear
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, potential low-level moisture issues in the western areas, capping issues in the eastern areas.
Saturday
No tornadoes expected.
Sunday – Southern Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Questionable storm coverage in the warm sector, weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels, little to no upper-level dynamics.
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