After a VERY late start to the spring tornado season, here we are with the start of a more consistent tornado-producing pattern.
1-3 Day
Monday – Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, decent/good speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent upper-level forcing.
Cons: Mostly unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear, some areas of veer-back-veer wind profiles, capping issues in the evening hours, fairly low surface moisture.
Tuesday – Central Plains, northwestern Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good speed shear, decent low-level directional shear, decent upper-level forcing.
Cons: Mostly unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear, capping issues, questionable storm mode.
Wednesday – Central and southern Plains, western Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 8-18 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Central and southern Plains
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear (mainly in the Plains), decent/good upper-level forcing.
Cons: Directional low-level shear is poor in the Midwest, unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear, potential areas of veer-back-veer wind profiles, potential capping issues in the southern Plains.
4-7 Day
Thursday – East-central and southern Plains, southwestern Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 8-18 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: East-central and southern Plains
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good speed shear, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent/good upper-level forcing.
Cons: Directional low-level shear is poor/decent in the Midwest, unidirectional mid-to-upper level shear, some areas of weaker mid-level speed shear in the Plains.
Friday – Southern Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent directional shear.
Cons: Weak speed shear, questionable storm mode, weak upper-level dynamics.
Saturday – Southwestern Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, decent upper-level forcing.
Cons: Low instability, weak speed shear.
Sunday
No tornadoes expected.
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Sheesh. Finally. Hope to see outlooks like this steadily over the next several weeks. We got some catching up to do Mother Nature!
The rain is welcome here in Chicago metropolitan area but I’d prefer to have the tornado activity limited to the unpopulated, rural regions where they can be observed, produce valuable research data and awesome video footage without debris that includes the remnants of homes, businesses, farms and of course the people, pets & livestock flying around getting turned into hamburger meat along with it. Seems like a bit of risk of severe storms including tornadoes from today through tomorrow (5/2/18-5/3/18) here to kick off the late start of the season though. Guess I’ll be monitoring the 2-meter ham repeaters to see if they activate spotters and check in if I can be useful for observation and assistance should anything nasty develop. Good luck and stay safe all!