Today and Friday will be active across the Plains and into the western Midwest, with dozens of tornadoes possible. Tornado threats drop off this weekend, with a fairly quiet early-to-mid week likely next week.
Thursday – Central and southern Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 14-32 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Kansas, Oklahoma
Pros: High instability, good low-level directional shear, good/excellent speed shear, decent upper-level support.
Cons: Unidirectional/backing winds in the mid-levels, storms could grow upscale quickly into broken lines.
Friday – Central and southern Plains, central Mississippi Valley
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 10-25 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Kansas, Oklahoma
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good/excellent low-level directional, good speed shear, decent upper-level support.
Cons: Surging cold front will help storms grow upscale fairly quickly
Saturday – Midwest, central Mississippi Valley, Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 5-12 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Midwest
Pros: Moderate instability, decent low-level directional shear, decent upper-level support in the Midwest, decent/good speed shear.
Cons: Unidirectional winds in the mid-to-upper levels leading to a mostly linear storm mode, weak upper-level support from the central Mississippi Valley to Texas, earlier clouds and rain in the morning and early afternoon could somewhat inhibit the stronger storm formation later in the day.
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, weak upper-level support.
Sunday – Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent speed shear, decent upper-level support.
Cons: Weak/decent directional shear, low instability.
Monday – Eastern New Mexico, northern Texas, Oklahoma
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-5 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, decent/good low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Questionable storm mode, uncertainty with how far north the unstable air gets.
Tuesday
No tornadoes expected.
Wednesday – Southeastern Mid-Atlantic, eastern Carolinas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent speed shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Poor directional shear, linear storm mode.
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Thanks so much for the updates!!!