It’s the start of peak chase season, but I hope you like chasing in the jungle, otherwise the next seven days will be slim pickings for chasers. Low tornado counts are good news for everyone else.
1-3 Day
Tuesday
No tornadoes expected.
Wednesday – Eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-14 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional shear, good/excellent speed shear.
Cons: Advancing cold front will make storms line-out, some of the best storms may form north of the warm front, staying elevated.
Thursday – Southeast
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Mostly linear storm mode due to unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, low instability.
4-7 Day
Friday – Eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent low-level directional shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, linear storm mode.
Saturday
No tornadoes expected.
Sunday
No tornadoes expected.
Monday
No tornadoes expected.
Latest posts by Mark Ellinwood (see all)
- Spring 2023 seasonal tornado outlook - March 1, 2023
- Spring 2022 seasonal tornado outlook - March 1, 2022
- Spring 2021 seasonal tornado outlook - March 1, 2021
