Aside from Friday’s tornado potential, it will be slim pickings over the next seven days. The end of next week could start to light back up, but for now we will have to deal with a mostly quiet week.
1-3 Day
Thursday – Eastern Great Lakes
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-3 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good speed shear, decent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Poor mid-to-upper level directional shear, weak upper-level dynamics.
Friday – Southeastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, western Arkansas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Southeastern Oklahoma
Pros: Good directional shear, good/excellent speed shear, low to moderate instability, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Limited areal coverage, storms may grow more upscale quickly, questionable low-to-mid level lapse rates.
Saturday – Southern Appalachians
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Low instability, weak directional shear, questionable storm mode.
4-7 Day
Sunday – Eastern Carolinas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good speed shear, good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Weak instability, weak directional shear.
Monday
No tornadoes expected.
Tuesday
No tornadoes expected.
Wednesday – Ohio Valley
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Poor/decent directional shear, low instability, mostly linear storm mode.
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