That time when mid-May didn’t really look that exciting in terms of tornado potential. Chasers should save their gas money for late May.
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma
Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear, moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Questionable storm mode and storm coverage, backing winds in the mid-levels in Texas, potential capping issues.
Tuesday – ArkLaTex region
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good directional shear, moderate to high instability.
Cons: Very little upper-level support, questionable storm mode.
Wednesday – Southern Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Little upper-level dynamic support, capping issues, questionable storm mode.
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, moderate to high instability
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, questionable storm mode, little upper-level support.
Friday – Deep South
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Low to moderate instability, decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak speed shear, very little upper-level support, cloud cover/rain in the morning and early afternoon limiting instability.
Saturday – Central and southern High Plains, central Texas
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak speed shear, little to no upper-level support
Sunday – Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, little upper-level support.
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