Tornado Threat Forecast

Tornado Threat Forecast: May 12-18, 2016

A pretty quiet end to this week, but could there be trouble in Texas during the first half of next week?

1-3 Day


Thursday

No tornadoes expected.

Friday – Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, Kansas, southwestern Midwest

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent speed shear in the Midwest, decent/good upper-level dynamics in the Midwest, good directional shear in the Plains.
Cons: Limited moisture and instability, weak/decent directional shear in the Midwest, weak/decent speed shear in the Plains, weak upper-level dynamics in the Plains, questionable storm mode.

Saturday – West Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-1 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, low instability, little upper-level forcing.

4-7 Day


Sunday – Western Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, weak upper-level dynamics, weak mid-level lapse rates.

Monday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 2-6 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, decent speed shear, decent upper-level forcing north of Texas.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, weak upper-level forcing in Texas, potential capping issues, uncertainty with the storm coverage and timing of the upper-level forcing.

Tuesday – ArkLaTex region

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds expected to bring more cluster/line storm types instead of supercells, questionable low-level lapse rates, weak upper-level forcing.

Wednesday – Southern Texas, Louisiana

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 1-4 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, storm coverage/capping issues, weak upper-level dynamics.

The following two tabs change content below.
Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Latest posts by Mark Ellinwood (see all)

Mark Ellinwood

Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Share
Published by
Mark Ellinwood

Recent Posts

Girls Who Chase: Empowering Female Storm Chasers

In a field historically dominated by men, Jen Walton has emerged as a transformative figure…

4 months ago

The Storm Doctor: Dr. Jason Persoff

Jason Persoff, MD, SFHM, is recognized globally for his expertise in storm chasing. He earned…

9 months ago

Top tornado videos of 2023

Tornado numbers were near or above average. A chase season peak in June provided numerous…

11 months ago

March 31, 2023 tornado outbreak videos

One of the more widespread tornado outbreaks in years, from Iowa and Illinois to Arkansas.

2 years ago

Spring 2023 seasonal tornado outlook

The active start of the year could be a sign, but a mid-March pattern change…

2 years ago

Top tornado videos of 2022

A near average year for tornadoes across the country, with a cool season bend. We've…

2 years ago