Tornado Threat Forecast

Tornado Threat Forecast: May 9-15, 2016

The southern Plains is the place to be for tornado potential over the next seven days, though the potential is not particularly great for any individual day. Today’s threat looks like it is the most potent out of the bunch, but there could be upside potential to Sunday if things come together a bit better than what the models are currently showing.

1-3 Day


Monday – Eastern Plains, central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 6-16 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: Eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, western Arkansas

Pros: Moderate instability, good/excellent low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, cloud cover and convective showers limiting the potential across and central Mississippi Valley.

Tuesday – Central Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, good low-to-mid level directional shear, decent upper-level speed shear.
Cons: Weak low-to-mid level speed shear, subtle hints of backing winds in the upper-levels little/no upper-level support.

Tuesday – Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate instability, decent low-level directional shear, decent speed shear.
Cons: Unidirectional or backing mid-to-upper level winds, mid-level speed shear is somewhat weak, weak upper-level dynamics.

Wednesday – Southern Plains, far eastern Kansas, central Mississippi Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, areas with backing winds in the upper-levels, upper-level forcing lags well behind the storms, potential capping issues in Texas.

4-7 Day


Thursday – Ohio Valley

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Low to moderate instability, (possible) localized areas of decent low-level directional shear.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional or slightly backed mid-to-upper level winds, weak upper-level dynamics.

Friday

No tornadoes expected.

Saturday – Western Texas

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None

Pros: Good/excellent low-level directional shear, low to moderate instability.
Cons: Weak/decent speed shear, unidirectional to backed winds in the mid-to-upper levels, weak upper-level forcing, questionable storm mode and coverage.

Sunday – Southern Plains

NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 3-8 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: Oklahoma

Pros: Moderate instability, good low-level directional and speed shear.
Cons: Neutral/rising heights, weak/decent speed shear in the mid-levels, weak upper-level forcing, questionable storm coverage (mainly for Texas).

The following two tabs change content below.
Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Latest posts by Mark Ellinwood (see all)

Mark Ellinwood

Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Share
Published by
Mark Ellinwood

Recent Posts

Girls Who Chase: Empowering Female Storm Chasers

In a field historically dominated by men, Jen Walton has emerged as a transformative figure…

4 months ago

The Storm Doctor: Dr. Jason Persoff

Jason Persoff, MD, SFHM, is recognized globally for his expertise in storm chasing. He earned…

10 months ago

Top tornado videos of 2023

Tornado numbers were near or above average. A chase season peak in June provided numerous…

11 months ago

March 31, 2023 tornado outbreak videos

One of the more widespread tornado outbreaks in years, from Iowa and Illinois to Arkansas.

2 years ago

Spring 2023 seasonal tornado outlook

The active start of the year could be a sign, but a mid-March pattern change…

2 years ago

Top tornado videos of 2022

A near average year for tornadoes across the country, with a cool season bend. We've…

2 years ago