Mother Nature is taking the work week off for the most part, but tornado activity is expected to perk back up this weekend.
Monday – Southern Mid-Atlantic, western North Carolina
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability, decent upper-level dynamic support.
Cons: Unidirectional shear in the mid-to-upper levels, some hints at backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels, storms will tend to cluster or line out.
Tuesday – Eastern North Carolina
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-1 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent speed shear, decent upper-level forcing.
Cons: Low instability, questionable directional shear, backing winds in the upper-levels, poor/decent lapse rates.
Wednesday
No tornadoes expected.
No tornadoes expected.
Friday – Eastern Wyoming, north-central Colorado
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-2 – CONFIDENCE: High
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Good/excellent directional shear, good mid-to-upper level speed shear, decent upper-level dynamic support.
Cons: Low instability, high LCLs, weak low-level speed shear.
Saturday – Central and southern High Plains
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 0-3 – CONFIDENCE: Normal
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, decent/good upper-level dynamics.
Cons: Questionable storm coverage, low instability, hints of backing winds in the mid-to-upper levels (mainly in the northern half of the risk area), high LCLs.
Sunday – Central and southern Plains, west-central Midwest
NUMBER OF TORNADOES EXPECTED: 4-10 – CONFIDENCE: Low
Tornado Hot-spot: None
Pros: Decent/good low-level directional shear, good speed shear, low-to-moderate instability, decent/good upper-level support.
Cons: Potential capping issues in the southern Plains, unidirectional mid-to-upper level winds, some hints at backing winds in the upper levels, storm mode lends to more clustered/linear storms.
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