Early action looks to be over the north-central U.S., but we’ll at least start on a fairly quiet note today and tomorrow. Better shear in place for this weekend, but we’ll have to see how many supercells can get cranking within the more favorable setup.
REMINDER: Starting next week, I will have a new job and a new schedule. I’ll try to get the forecasts out in the mornings Monday and Thursday next week, then I will have to see what my schedule looks like after that for future updates.
Northwestern Plains, central High Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-4 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Northern High Plains
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good/strong directional shear, decent speed shear
Cons: High LCLs, storm coverage concerns in the southern areas, possible slight backing in the upper-levels across the southern areas
Friday
Northern and central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 0-2 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Moderate instability, decent/good speed shear, decent directional shear in the low-levels, some upper-level forcing
Cons: Capping concerns, notably-backed winds in the upper-levels across most of the risk area
Saturday
Northeast and central Plains, western Midwest — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Decent/good speed and directional shear, moderate instability, decent upper-level forcing
Cons: Some capping and upper-level backing concerns in the northern areas, potential ongoing cloud cover and rain in the morning and afternoon could inhibit instability, questionable storm modes for most of the risk area
Northern Midwest, central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 3-8 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Northern Midwest
Pros: Good/strong speed shear, decent/good directional shear, moderate to high instability, good upper-level dynamics in the northern areas
Cons: Weaker speed shear and questionable storm coverage in the central Plains, some possible capping/lapse rate issues
Monday
Midwest, Central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-4 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good speed shear, decent/good upper-level dynamics in the northern areas
Cons: Weak/okay directional shear in most areas, fairly unidirectional flow aloft, tendency for storms to line out along advancing cold front
Tuesday
Mid-Atlantic — TORNADO RANGE: 0-2 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, some low-level forcing along/ahead of a cold front
Cons: Weak/okay speed and low-level directional shear, unidirectional flow aloft, upper-level dynamics are too displaced to have much if any impact
Wednesday
No tornadoes expected.
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