Tornado Threat Forecast: June 23-29, 2014

Climatologically-favored areas edition. Lots of threats on the High Plains and up in the northern Plains and northwestern Midwest in the coming week.

Programming Note: Starting next week, I will have a new job that involves rotating shifts, so consistent mid to late afternoon posts may be hard to come by going forward. Just going to have to go with the flow!

1-3 Day

Monday

Central High Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-3 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Strong directional shear, decent/good speed shear, low to moderate instability
Cons: Lack of upper-level forcing, questionable storm mode, somewhat-weak low-level speed shear

Tuesday

Central and southern Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 2-7 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good/strong directional shear, decent speed shear aloft, moderate instability
Cons: Weak upper-level forcing, somewhat-weak low-level speed shear

Wednesday

High Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Good/strong directional shear
Cons: High LCLs, fairly weak speed shear in the mid-levels, still no appreciable upper-level forcing

4-7 Day

Thursday

Northern and central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 1-5 — CONFIDENCE: Normal
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Northern High Plains
Pros: Moderate to high instability, good/strong directional shear
Cons: Weak low/mid-level speed shear, upper-level forcing still too displaced to the west to have much of an impact, high LCLs in most areas

Friday

Northern and central Plains — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: Dakotas
Pros: High instability, decent/good directional shear, 500mb trough starting to work into the target area
Cons: Capping concerns in the southern areas, some speed shear concerns remain, some areas might have backing winds in the mid to upper-levels

Saturday

Northern and central Plains, northwestern Midwest — TORNADO RANGE: 2-6 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent upper-level forcing
Cons: More unidirectional flow aloft, capping concerns in the warm sector, storm mode concerns as cold front advances

Sunday

Northwestern Midwest — TORNADO RANGE: 0-4 — CONFIDENCE: Low
Expected Tornado Hotspot: None
Pros: Moderate to high instability, decent/good speed shear, decent/good upper-level forcing
Cons: Weak/decent directional shear, questionable storm mode, advancing cold front, surface low displaced well to the north

The following two tabs change content below.
Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Latest posts by Mark Ellinwood (see all)

Mark Ellinwood

Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Share
Published by
Mark Ellinwood

Recent Posts

Girls Who Chase: Empowering Female Storm Chasers

In a field historically dominated by men, Jen Walton has emerged as a transformative figure…

4 months ago

The Storm Doctor: Dr. Jason Persoff

Jason Persoff, MD, SFHM, is recognized globally for his expertise in storm chasing. He earned…

9 months ago

Top tornado videos of 2023

Tornado numbers were near or above average. A chase season peak in June provided numerous…

11 months ago

March 31, 2023 tornado outbreak videos

One of the more widespread tornado outbreaks in years, from Iowa and Illinois to Arkansas.

2 years ago

Spring 2023 seasonal tornado outlook

The active start of the year could be a sign, but a mid-March pattern change…

2 years ago

Top tornado videos of 2022

A near average year for tornadoes across the country, with a cool season bend. We've…

2 years ago