2014’s EF3+ tornado drought: The latest in the year on record without one

If you’re a regular follower of our blog or of U.S. weather in general, then it’s no secret that this tornado season has been even quieter through early April than 2013 was.  But back on March 31, the 2014 tornado season actually broke a record for the latest in the year with no F/EF3+.

March 30 (local time) was previously the date of the latest F/EF3+ tornado on record in the U.S. since 1950, and it happened in 2002.  As of publish, there has not yet been a single EF3+ rated tornado in the United States during the 2014 calendar year. Caveat: There was a fairly large tornado in eastern North Carolina during the afternoon of April 7 that has yet to be rated.

If that tornado is not rated EF3+, then the streak will likely continue until at least Monday, April 14, when the next significant trough ejection is modeled to occur across the central U.S. If the NC twister does attain the rating in question, we still have set the record by over a week.

Chart 1: The previous list of the five years with the latest 1st F/EF3+ tornado for each year.  Chart created by T. Lyza and first posted on the UAH Severe Weather Institute-Radar and Lightning Laboratories Twitter and Facebook accounts (@UAHSWIRLL on Twitter, http://www.facebook.com/uahsevere on Facebook).

Chart 2: A list of information for each year’s 1st F/EF3+ tornado since 1950.

Chart 3: Mean/median dates for the 1st F/EF3+ tornado for each year since 1950.

Don’t let your guard down

So does this mean the rest of the tornado season will be quiet?  Absolutely not!

Of the previous 5  years with the latest formation of the first F/EF3+, both 2003 and 2004 became extremely active in May and June, with May 2003 being the most prolific tornado month (543 tornadoes) on record until April 2011 and with 2004 overall still holding the record for the most tornadoes recorded in a calendar year.

Therefore, don’t let your guard down as we continue through what-barely-has-been-spring 2014.