Tornado News

2014’s EF3+ tornado drought: The latest in the year on record without one

(SPC)
(SPC)

If you’re a regular follower of our blog or of U.S. weather in general, then it’s no secret that this tornado season has been even quieter through early April than 2013 was.  But back on March 31, the 2014 tornado season actually broke a record for the latest in the year with no F/EF3+.

March 30 (local time) was previously the date of the latest F/EF3+ tornado on record in the U.S. since 1950, and it happened in 2002.  As of publish, there has not yet been a single EF3+ rated tornado in the United States during the 2014 calendar year. Caveat: There was a fairly large tornado in eastern North Carolina during the afternoon of April 7 that has yet to be rated.

If that tornado is not rated EF3+, then the streak will likely continue until at least Monday, April 14, when the next significant trough ejection is modeled to occur across the central U.S. If the NC twister does attain the rating in question, we still have set the record by over a week.

 

Top 5 Latest Years for the First EF3+ Tornado of the Year in the United States since 1950
Year Date (UTC) Time (UTC) State Rating Day of Year
2014 ? ? ? ? ?
2002 31-Mar 0050 TX F3 90
2004 27-Mar 1913 KS F3 87
1994 27-Mar 1655 AL F4 86
2003 20-Mar 1005 GA F3 79
1981 19-Mar 0645 FL F3 78

Chart 1: The previous list of the five years with the latest 1st F/EF3+ tornado for each year.  Chart created by T. Lyza and first posted on the UAH Severe Weather Institute-Radar and Lightning Laboratories Twitter and Facebook accounts (@UAHSWIRLL on Twitter, http://www.facebook.com/uahsevere on Facebook).

 

First EF3+ Tornado of the Year in the United States by Year
Year Date (UTC) Time (UTC) State Rating Day of Year
1950 3-Jan 1700 MO F3 3
1951 6-Jan 2330 LA F3 6
1952 14-Feb 0200 AL F3 45
1953 20-Jan 2100 AL F3 20
1954 16-Feb 0218 AR F3 47
1955 1-Mar 0752 OH F3 50
1956 29-Jan 0330 AR F3 29
1957 22-Jan 1245 OK F4 22
1958 26-Feb 2330 MS F3 57
1959 21-Jan 1520 MS F3 21
1960 10-Feb 0245 AR F3 41
1961 17-Feb 2245 OK F3 48
1962 12-Mar 0145 IN F3 71
1963 11-Jan 0555 TN F3 11
1964 25-Jan 0100 AL F4 25
1965 9-Feb 1850 AR F3 40
1966 29-Jan 0350 LA F3 29
1967 24-Jan 1840 MO F3 24
1968 1-Feb 2345 LA F3 32
1969 23-Jan 1125 MS F4 23
1970 3-Mar 1330 TX F3 62
1971 5-Feb 0145 AL F3 36
1972 10-Jan 0120 MS F3 10
1973 18-Jan 2015 LA F3 18
1974 19-Jan 0810 TX F3 19
1975 10-Jan 1414 MS F4 10
1976 18-Feb 1313 MS F3 49
1977 23-Feb 2115 MS F3 54
1978 7-Jan 2132 AR F3 7
1979 23-Feb 1535 TX F3 54
1980 2-Mar 0200 FL F3 62
1981 19-Mar 0645 FL F3 78
1982 3-Jan 2055 MS F3 3
1983 31-Jan 2000 TX F3 31
1984 27-Feb 1335 FL F3 58
1985 17-Mar 0930 FL F3 76
1986 5-Feb 2230 TX F3 36
1987 28-Feb 1505 MS F4 59
1988 19-Jan 1720 MS F4 19
1989 7-Jan 2324 IL F4 7
1990 19-Jan 2140 TX F3 19
1991 19-Feb 0845 TX F3 50
1992 18-Feb 2210 OH F4 49
1993 21-Feb 1952 TN F3 52
1994 27-Mar 1655 AL F4 86
1995 16-Feb 1059 AL F3 47
1996 6-Mar 0145 AR F3 65
1997 24-Jan 2300 TN F3 24
1998 23-Feb 0437 FL F3 54
1999 2-Jan 0545 TX F3 2
2000 3-Jan 2206 KY F3 3
2001 25-Feb 0001 AR F3 56
2002 31-Mar 0050 TX F3 90
2003 20-Mar 1005 GA F3 79
2004 27-Mar 1913 KS F3 87
2005 13-Jan 0525 AR F3 12
2006 2-Jan 2212 GA F3 2
2007 2-Feb 0810 FL EF3 33
2008 7-Jan 2130 IL EF3 7
2009 11-Feb 0045 OK EF4 42
2010 20-Jan 2318 TX EF3 20
2011 1-Jan 0602 MS EF3 1
2012 23-Jan 0958 AL EF3 23
2013 30-Jan 1612 GA EF3 30
2014 ? ? ? ? ?

Chart 2: A list of information for each year’s 1st F/EF3+ tornado since 1950.

 

Mean Day of First F/EF3+ Tornado: 5-Feb
Median Day of First F/EF3+ Tornado: 1-Feb

Chart 3: Mean/median dates for the 1st F/EF3+ tornado for each year since 1950.

Don’t let your guard down

So does this mean the rest of the tornado season will be quiet?  Absolutely not!

Of the previous 5  years with the latest formation of the first F/EF3+, both 2003 and 2004 became extremely active in May and June, with May 2003 being the most prolific tornado month (543 tornadoes) on record until April 2011 and with 2004 overall still holding the record for the most tornadoes recorded in a calendar year.

Therefore, don’t let your guard down as we continue through what-barely-has-been-spring 2014.

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Tony Lyza

M.S. student and graduate research assistant in the UAHuntsville Severe Weather and Radar Research Group. See full bio.

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