Tornado Threat Forecast: August 5-11, 2012

1-3 DAY


Sunday

Northeastern Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: High
Storms forming ahead of a cold front are in an environment with enough directional shear for a tornado, but speed shear and instability are on the low end.

Monday

No tornadic activity expected.

Tuesday

No tornadic activity expected.

4-7 DAY


Wednesday

Northeastern Mid-Atlantic — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: High
A weak shortwave disturbance will work into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, providing enough directional shear for the potential for a tornado, but like Sunday the speed shear in the low to mid levels will be fairly weak, along with low amounts of CAPE.

Thursday

Northern Plains — POTENTIAL: Very Low — CONFIDENCE: Normal
A shortwave trough working through south-central Canada could trigger storms in the northern Plains, but weak speed shear in the low-levels and a fairly dry low-levels will inhibit storms from becoming tornadic.

Friday

Northeastern U.S. — POTENTIAL: Low — CONFIDENCE: Low
The European operational model develops a strong disturbance as a fairly strong vort. max rolls through the northeastern U.S. while the GFS has a weaker, more progressive storm. The European appears to be a stronger/slower outlier compared to the GFS/Euro ensemble models, keeping confidence on the tornado potential low.

Saturday

No tornadic activity expected.

The following two tabs change content below.
Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Latest posts by Mark Ellinwood (see all)

Mark Ellinwood

Operational Meteorologist at WeatherBug (Earth Networks). See full bio.

Share
Published by
Mark Ellinwood

Recent Posts

Girls Who Chase: Empowering Female Storm Chasers

In a field historically dominated by men, Jen Walton has emerged as a transformative figure…

3 months ago

The Storm Doctor: Dr. Jason Persoff

Jason Persoff, MD, SFHM, is recognized globally for his expertise in storm chasing. He earned…

9 months ago

Top tornado videos of 2023

Tornado numbers were near or above average. A chase season peak in June provided numerous…

10 months ago

March 31, 2023 tornado outbreak videos

One of the more widespread tornado outbreaks in years, from Iowa and Illinois to Arkansas.

2 years ago

Spring 2023 seasonal tornado outlook

The active start of the year could be a sign, but a mid-March pattern change…

2 years ago

Top tornado videos of 2022

A near average year for tornadoes across the country, with a cool season bend. We've…

2 years ago