May 2012 has been a quiet month for tornadoes, but will that trend continue?

A “smoke tornado” in Kansas on May 3, 2011 during a rather quiet stretch of May tornadoes just a year ago. By author.

After notably large early-season tornado outbreaks on March 2 and April 14, we’ve limped through the first half of May — the peak month when it comes to raw numbers — with fairly limited tornado activity.

This has of course left many a storm enthusiast wondering if it’s ever going to get active again. Unusual in some ways, but not too unlike the period following the historic April 27, 2011 outbreak that lasted into the second third of May. Tornado numbers come in chunks for most of the year, though by May and particularly into June, there is almost a daily average that can be realistically expected.

The problem if you’re looking for tornadoes in the Plains? Well, one of them is the displacement of the jet stream to the north of its typical playing ground in May. Rather than continually cutting through the U.S. in a series of waves, it has been stuck near the Canada border and north before dipping into the East Coast. While multi-faceted in cause, this is in part thanks to blocking patterns over the larger portion of the hemisphere.

The end result has been, outside the occasional southern stream disturbance spinning up tornadoes and waterspouts, nice weather dominating large portions of the central U.S. However, signs may be emerging of at least some threats, and perhaps even a larger-scale pattern evolution favoring more continual storminess in Tornado Alley and surrounds.

We’ve compiled thoughts from those watching recent and potential future events below.

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