April 14, 2012 Outbreak Forecast Verification

Update: This evening, the Storm Prediction Center posted a similar graphic to their Facebook page that included a time-series for the week-long period they outlooked this threat.

1:30 pm: This event was forecast fairly well overall, with plenty of lead time from the SPC to make sure as many people could be informed as possible. That being said, let’s take a look at the actual verification of tornado reports compared to their risk area issued in their 1630z update (based on reports as of 1630z today).

The northern edge of the main risk near the triple-point of the storm did not verify too well as the strong overnight activity that was expected up that way did not play out. The forecast in Oklahoma and Kansas were a little difficult because the potential for a large event was there, but models kept the storms fairly isolated overall. In fact, it was just several storms that produced many of the tornadoes in yesterday’s outbreak… they stayed strong for so long because they had plenty of “clean air” to work with and did not have to compete with other storms for the available energy.

Personally, I thought the early call on the High Risk Friday morning was a little sketchy because even though the potential was there, the isolated coverage and weaker representation on the high-resolution models lowered the confidence in the potential. I was on board by their afternoon Day 2 update when it seemed to me that these isolated storms could make up for the lack of coverage by their long-lived intensity. In the end, it’s all about getting people prepared, so I applaud the SPC for going bold and coming out with a good verification.